Not having bankroll management to place sports bets can lead a bettor to lose a lot of money.

But this can be easily avoided! ☝️

Everything will depend on 2 factors:

1. If you have minimal management of your money
2. What method do you use to manage your bankroll?

In this article we will show you 3 proven methods to manage your betting money well!

But is that enough to avoid losses?

No!

That’s why we’ll give you some simple tips at the end of the article, both for those who trade on Betfair and for those who bet on Sportsbooks.

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What is bankroll management?

Starting with the most basic, what is the bettor’s bankroll?

Bankroll management means managing this amount in order to not lose it completely in bets, ending up at a loss .

There are many methods for this. Not all of them, however, are effective.

An example of this is the Martingale. In theory it works well, but in practice not so much.

So, first, we’re going to talk about the ideal minimum bankroll for betting and the basic principles of bankroll management.

Later, we will give you the solution to manage your bets well, presenting 3 good methods:

• Fixed value
• Percentage Value
• Kelly criterion

What is the ideal minimum bankroll for betting?

You will find several testimonials on the internet from bettors talking about the initial value of their bankrolls.

Keep in mind, however, that each person’s situation is different. Some people may have more money, while others may not have as much.

If your question is: can I start small and double my bankroll after a while?

You can, you should and you probably will!

In any case, let’s clarify which factors influence this decision.

1. Financial reality of the bettor

We can’t afford to be delusional here. Calculate your monthly income before setting aside any money for betting.

This is really important. Of course, there are those who can spend more than R$1,000.00 every month, but this is not common in Brazil.

Most people earn minimum wage or a little more. There are bills to pay, as well as expenses for food and other necessities.

In this scenario, it is very likely that there will be little left to dedicate to betting. Which is not a problem at all!

Never waste money that you will need!

A good rule of thumb is to set aside 10% of your winnings to build up your bankroll.

2. Earnings goals and targets

There is no such thing as betting three or four times on random events simply to see what happens.

You have to have a goal!

Even if you just want to bet for fun, remember: it’s your money that’s at stake.

And like any good investment, it is important to have goals to be achieved.

In this sense, think about how much return you want to have in 1 month, in 6 months and in 1 year.

Profits are proportional to the initial bankroll. So, someone with a bankroll of R$5,000.00 will make more profit in a month than someone with a bankroll of R$500.00?

Not necessarily. The higher the amount available for betting, the higher the amount available to bet on each stake. But that’s in theory.

Anyone who has R$5,000.00 could lose it in a month.

Anyone who has R$500 can multiply it and reach R$5,000.00.

The important thing is to set goals. If you want to get R$100 in return after 30 days of betting, you can easily start with a bankroll of R$100.

That would mean you doubled your bankroll in one month! An excellent goal to achieve.

3. Amount invested in each bet

Finally, define how much you want to invest in each bet. We emphasize that there must be consistency here.

Don’t bet R$20 one day and R$70 the next! That’s almost certain to break the bank quickly.

This is a typical mistake made by those who do not have a betting strategy and who are not looking for value bets.

It is not necessary to bet every day or even every week.

Are there real chances of winning? Can I make high profits? Then it’s worth betting!

However, even when bets have value, it is necessary to have a coherent stake.

You can work with a specific amount or a percentage of the bank, as long as you know how to respond to its variations.

What value should the initial bankroll have?

The ideal minimum bankroll must satisfactorily meet the factors explained above:

Respecting the financial reality of most Brazilians today, we would say that an interesting initial bankroll should be at least R$145.

Why?

This amount currently corresponds to just over 10% of the Brazilian minimum wage . Some people transfer it to a savings account.

Let’s remember that several experts point out that saving 10% of your income every month is a way to guarantee a good old age.

Today, savings accounts yield around 0.5% per month.

But let’s say you want to invest that R$100 in sports betting . It’s already been decided that this will be your initial bankroll.

The next step is to define your goal. After creating a plan, you want to double the amount at the end of a month. Therefore: R$200 .

Just don’t think that you’re going to get rich overnight with sports betting…

As a security measure, of course, you decided to bet 10% of your bankroll. So, we have a stake of R$10.

Here’s an example: let’s bet on a football match . The event is Espanyol vs. Getafe, for LaLiga.

• Getafe, playing away from home, has 20 points in the competition. It is in 7th place.
• Espanyol are second to last with 8 points.

When analyzing the event odds on the BetWay website , you find that, in fact, Getafe has more chances of winning than the odds show.

Therefore, the odds should be lower, which constitutes a value bet!

Decided: you bet R$10 on Getafe to win . To your delight, the team actually wins the match.

We therefore have:

R$ 10 x 2.80 = R$ 28.80 in earnings and R$ 18.80 in profit.

In just one bet you won R$18.30 more than you would have won in a month with the R$100 in your savings account.

We understand if you tell us that R$100 is a lot. That’s okay!

Keep the 10% bankroll tactic. Even if you bet R$5 on Getafe to win, you would have a profit of R$14, with a total profit of R$9.

Of course, our guesses won’t always be right. Every bettor loses eventually, and that’s something you need to internalize.

The important thing is that, after defining your initial bankroll , you maintain an intelligent betting strategy.

One of them, as seen above, is to focus on value bets . But the most important one is bankroll management.

Bankroll Management Principles

The idea behind bankroll management is quite simple in theory. You have a certain starting amount, which could be R$50, R$100 or even more.

In other words: it’s about managing the risk of each bet, betting only what’s necessary so that, if you win, you’ll have a satisfactory profit. And if you lose, you don’t lose too much at once.

The worst thing you can do in this regard is to risk everything on a single bet, because if it goes wrong, you lose everything – and bad luck happens…

There are several management methods for this. Many, however, are not effective or reliable.

This is the case of Martingale.

Martingale Myth

We cannot consider Martingale a bankroll management method , despite it having been used for a long time as a strategy for this purpose.

This is because in practice the Martingale is not reliable. It can therefore quickly lead to bankruptcies .

But let’s look at a classic example of a roulette game so you can understand.

Your bankroll is R$50. You bet R$5 that the ball will land on red. However, it lands on black. Result: a loss of R$5.

Martingale principles dictate that you should now bet twice as much as you did before to try to recover your losses.

Again the guess is that the ball will land on red. It lands on black, and now the total loss is R$15 . The bank has already gone down to R$35 .

Can you see the danger of Martingale?

If you keep doubling your bet, you could bankrupt your bankroll in 2 more rounds .

Therefore, it is not even close to the best method for managing a bankroll.

You might think, ” Oh, man… but I’m going to have to get it right sometime! ”

This may be true, but this is one of the reasons why many bookmakers or online casinos limit the maximum amount that can be placed on a single bet!

Furthermore, in roulette, past results do not influence future results. It is a mistake to think that the next round will be red, just because the previous rounds always came out black!

So let’s look at some of the best methods for you to manage your bankroll effectively.

Fixed Value Method

As we saw above, Martingale is not the most reliable method of bankroll management.

We cannot rely solely on luck to manage our money.

An interesting strategy is to set a single value for all your bets. This is what the method known as Fixed Value is based on.

The Fixed Value is limited and restricted , but it is a good way for you to understand how structured bankroll management works.

So that you understand better, let’s say your bankroll is R$60. You will always bet R$3 , respecting the idea of ​​a fixed value.

Keep in mind that this represents 5% of your bankroll.

If you bet these R$3 at odds of 2.00 and win, you will get R$6 . The bank now has R$63.

Even if the amount has increased, on the next bet you will continue to bet R$3. This consistency is the strategy behind the fixed amount.

Fixed Value: advantages and disadvantages

It is a fact that always placing bets with the same amount makes it easier to manage your bankroll. You know how much money you have available and you always know what you are going to spend.

The rigidity of the method in this sense is a great advantage.

This is always a plus because when it is “time to stop”, if that time comes on a bad day, you haven’t completely lost your bankroll!

And here we enter the other side of the Fixed Value: it does not consider bank fluctuations.

If you start with a bankroll of R$60 and make 5 consecutive bets of R$3 at odds of 2.00 , all winning, of course this is positive.

After all, you end up with R$90! But now R$3 represents 3.3% of your R$90 bankroll, not 5% anymore.

But what if you place 5 bets in a row and they all lose ?

You need to keep in mind that as the bankroll decreases, the amount you bet needs to follow this fluctuation. Otherwise, you won’t be managing it well.

In this sense, the Fixed Value is not the most appropriate.

To give you an idea of ​​how risky it is to use Fixed Value, the most experienced bettors only bet 2% to 5% of their bankroll .

If you notice that what you are betting goes beyond this, you need to rethink this method and even take a break to avoid a bad run.

Percentage Value Method

Percentage Value is a safer and more flexible method of managing your bankroll. Instead of using fixed amounts, you use percentages.

As we said above, high rollers bet with a safe margin. It ranges between 3% and 5% of the total bankroll , with anything above that being very risky.

In this method, you may or may not use the same percentage on all bets.

The idea is to respect the bank. By always using low percentages, you can be safe and avoid disastrous losses.

This tactic still allows the bettor to take risks from time to time.

In these cases, it’s worth increasing the amount bet to 10% when you notice a value bet that you’re very confident in!

Keep in mind that the percentage should always be related to the total bankroll amount.

The 5% does not have the same impact on a $600 betting budget as it does on a $100 betting budget.

Percentage Value: Advantages and Disadvantages

There is no foolproof bankroll management method. We can say that the Percentage Value, however, is very effective.

In relation to the Fixed Value, this strategy is more dynamic , because in addition to the amount bet varying according to the evolution of the bank, you do not need to always focus on just one percentage.

If your bankroll is R$100 and you notice a value bet, bet 10% of the amount . In this case, it would be R$10.

If you win, great! But if you lose, it is advisable to reduce the percentage you bet on your next bet. This is a bankroll containment measure.

The advantage is that in the next game played, by reducing the percentage by 5% , you reduce the risk of your situation getting worse.

This dynamism, however, can be a negative point of this method, especially if your bankroll is larger and the percentage bet is also larger.

Simple Kelly Criterion Method

The Kelly Criterion is currently one of the most sophisticated bankroll management methods.

It was developed by physicist-mathematician John Kelly in 1956. Kelly’s idea is quite simple and takes into account two factors:

• Probability of an outcome occurring (calculated by the bettor)
• The bookmaker’s odds for this outcome

The idea is to do a very simple calculation to arrive at the percentage of the bankroll that we should bet!

The formula used for this is:

Kelly = (BP – Q) / B

In this case, B is the house’s odds, P is the probability of the result happening and Q is the probability of the result not happening. See an example from the 1xbet bookmaker :

Let’s assume that after we have done our analysis, we believe that Tottenham’s chance of winning is 33%.

With this information in hand, let’s look at the Kelly Criterion:

Kelly criterion = (2.87 – 1 x 0.34 – 0.66) / (2.87 -1) = – 0.0129

The above result was negative , and you might be wondering if there is something wrong with the calculation. No, there is not.

This is because according to the Kelly Criterion it is not worth betting on this result with these odds of victory for Tottenham.

Why?

Because the odds that the house placed on Tottenham’s victory (2.87) means that the house thinks that the probability of the London team winning is 34.8%.

If the bookmaker gives Tottenham a higher chance of winning than we think they do, then it’s not worth betting on that result. It’s not a value bet!

But let’s look at an example when the criterion is positive.

Let’s say you want to bet on the Gaucho classic Grêmio vs. Inter.

Since you know the current club statistics, you assume that Grêmio actually has a 65% chance of winning. Kelly tells us that:

• B: 1.71 – 1 = 0.71
• P: 0.65
• Q: 1 – 0.65 = 0.35

I.e:

(0.71 x 0.65 – 0.35) / 0.71 = 15.7%

To make your life easier, you can use the calculator below – in this case the house odds are 1.71 and the real probability, calculated by the bettor, is 65%.

Following the example above, the Kelly Criterion tells us that you should bet 15.7% of your bankroll on Grêmio winning.

This is only possible by taking into account the house odds and the real probability of the event happening.

Here we identify a small problem with the method: it may happen that the method suggests betting very high percentages of your bankroll.

It is up to the bettor to decide whether it is worth placing the bet or not. It is customary in the Kelly Criterion to establish a maximum percentage ceiling.

Kelly criterion: advantages and disadvantages

One of the main advantages of the Kelly Criterion is the management power it gives the bettor.

We are not talking about the amount or percentage bet. Management is based on the odds of a given event.

The Kelly Criterion is advantageous because, using data from the house itself and our estimate, we can check whether it is worth betting or not.

That’s why this method is one of the most connected to the calculation of expected value and value bets.

But this is only possible if you know how to identify the real probabilities of an event happening.

The main disadvantage of the Kelly Criterion is that it sometimes suggests betting very high percentages of your bankroll.

Remember that 5% of the bank is a safe percentage. However, if you feel confident about a result, we suggest that the maximum be 15%.

Additionally, some bettors may find the Kelly calculation complicated. If that’s the case for you, the calculator above will help you a lot.

Bankroll Management and EV+

At the beginning of the article we promised a strategy tip, and it is related to EV+ or the already mentioned positive expected value.

First of all, there are 3 types of bettors:

• What has no bankroll management or strategy
• What HAS bankroll management but no strategy
• And the one who both manages the bankroll well and has a betting plan

In other words: even a person with good banking knowledge must draw up a long-term plan seeking EV+. Otherwise, sooner or later, they will end up at a loss.

When you have a behavior that seeks EV+, it even fluctuates from time to time, but in the end it maintains good gains.

Bankroll management in sports trading

The best sports traders follow 3 pillars to be successful in their bets:

1. Championship and event analysis
2. Defining betting strategies and techniques
3. Efficient Bankroll Management

Of course, these pillars apply to any type of bet. But in Trading, which is more complex, they are even more important. Especially the last one!

In addition to choosing a good bankroll management method, a trader needs to handle his investments professionally. This means having:

• Organization : with one of the methods above you will know how much money to set aside for each trade. Have a budget and follow it consistently;
• Calm down : in trading you win little by little, so be calm when operating on sites like Betfair. Don’t risk more than you can afford to lose;
• Caution : Don’t invest if you don’t find EV+. Calculating whether the risk/reward is worth it is a way to keep your bankroll balanced;
• Control : lost? Don’t try to win everything back in one game. Control your emotions so as not to put your bankroll at risk by placing and exiting bets in a disorganized manner;
• Spreadsheet : An Excel spreadsheet for trading is essential. Record all the games you enter and the results you obtained. Review your mistakes to stay on track.

Taking these 5 factors into consideration will make you better prepared to bet on betting exchanges like Betfair, as you will have greater control over your bankroll.

Conclusion: which method to use?

There are many bankroll management methods out there, and some are invariably more effective than others.

Even so, some bettors feel more comfortable with a certain technique, even if it is not always the best.

For our part, we consider the Simple Kelly Criterion to be one of the most advantageous methods for managing bankroll.

It indicates the percentage of the bankroll that should be bet on an event and indicates in some cases that you should not place a bet.

This was very evident in the example above. Which is fantastic, because you know when it is not worth making an investment!

So don’t feel trapped in a single strategy. Managing your money effectively may require more than one management technique .

The important thing is that you feel safe and that you can effectively control your bets.